24.02.2016 - Oil resumed its fall and a negative dynamics is likely to continue

The price of gold showed growth after renewed decline in oil prices, which deteriorated investors’ sentiment on the stock markets. Concerns about global economic growth affect the expectations of investors on terms of raising the Fed's interest rates, which is negative for the price of gold. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on new home sales in the US (15:00 GMT), and the central event of the week will be the publication of the preliminary US GDP growth statistics for the 4th quarter. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the expected stabilization in commodity and stock markets, but the current growth may continue in the near future.

The price of the futures for Light Sweet crude oil resumed its fall after the recent increase caused by the publication of forecasts on reduction of oil production in the US in 2016. It is worth noting that the market does not believe in a consensus among the major oil producers for the reduction of production volumes. As a result, growth in supply from Iran will compensate possible reduction in US oil production and an imbalance of supply and demand will remain in the coming months. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the US oil inventory data (15:30 GMT). We expect a further decline of quotations in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook with the potential of the price fall to the levels 25 and 22 dollars per barrel.

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