24.02.2016 - The movement on the markets still depends on the dynamics of oil prices
American stock indexes showed decline amid falling oil prices. In addition, investors' uncertainty grew after the publication of conflicting statistics. The sales on the secondary housing market in the US rose to its highest level in 6 months, 5.47 million vs. expected 5.37 million, but the index of US consumer confidence from the Conference Board in February unexpectedly fell to 92.2, against the forecast of 97.4. Today, the central event will be the release of the report on sales of new homes in the US (15:00 GMT), which traditionally has a strong influence on investor sentiment. US markets continue to respond to the dynamics of oil prices. Strong movement is possible on Friday after the release of preliminary data on US GDP growth in Q4. Our negative outlook for the coming months remains unchanged.
European stocks fell yesterday amid falling value of the shares of mining companies, the negative external background and falling oil prices. Yesterday was published statistics on the growth of German GDP in the 4th quarter, which totaled 0.3%, which coincided with forecasts of analysts. It should be noted that for the year the German economy grew by 1.7%. Today, the course of trading in the UK can affect the data on the balance of retail sales (11:00 GMT). One of the central themes in Europe remains a referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union, and we expect a strong price movement on the background of speculations on this subject. In the coming weeks the growth on the region's markets will maintain expectations of further stimulus measures by the ECB. Our medium-term outlook also remains positive, despite a possible drop in the coming days.
Major stock indexes in the Asia-Pacific region showed a decrease except for the Shanghai market. The dynamics of the Asian markets are under pressure from the negative closing of trading in the US and falling oil prices. Strengthening of the yen has led to a drop in the shares of companies oriented to external markets. In case of stock markets stabilization in China, we expect the growth of indices in the region, but it also requires the termination of the fall in oil prices. We still expect high levels of volatility and reduction in tensions on the markets, after which may see moderate growth.