Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed a decrease amid the weakening of the US dollar, after was published statistics on the increase in the number of new home sales in the United States to 654 thousand in July against the forecast of 575 thousand. It should be noted that the housing market has a key influence on the US economy and a strong effect on the dollar. At the same time, the consumer confidence index in the euro area in August totaled -9 vs. expected -8. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect news for GDP growth in Germany (06:00 GMT) and existing home sales in the US (14:00 GMT). We expect strong growth in volatility after the speech of the Fed chief on symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday and in the case of a more hawkish rhetoric, the euro will accelerate the fall. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and the probability of fall in the near future is high.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound has stabilized after recent gains caused by a strong statistics from the UK, and the weakening of the US dollar. Today, little impact on the mood of traders will have news on the number of mortgage approvals in the country (08:30 GMT). Investors are waiting for Friday, when will be published data on the GDP growth of Great Britain and the United States, as well as the statement of the Fed chairwoman. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we look forward to the beginning of the decline in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen shows a slight decrease against the background of strengthening of US dollar. The potential for further strengthening of the yen declined significantly and the statements of the Bank of Japan on the possible monetary easing has led to a decrease in the Japanese currency. On Friday will be released an important data on inflation in Japan, and the course of trading will affect news from Jackson Hole, where will be held an economic symposium. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen, and according to our estimates, the decline may begin in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to decline after the recent upward correction. The reasons for the decrease are the growth of the US dollar, the recent decline in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia, as well as the correction in oil prices, which had a negative impact on commodity prices, which are the leading export group in Australia. After the recent change of the upward dynamics to the negative, we expect a continuation of negative trend with the potential reduction by 7-10%.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a decline after in the country was published weak data on the trade balance, the deficit of which in July totaled 433 million against the forecast of 320 million. Additional pressure on the local currency had a growth of the US dollar. Long-term consolidation and reduction of price fluctuations of the amplitude indicates a strong price movement in the future. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.