24.09.2014 - ​Trade deficit declined in New Zealand

The price of euro continues to consolidate above 1.2850. The market situation has not changed much since the data on the manufacturing PMI in the euro area and the United States did not meet analysts' forecasts. Thus, in the euro area the figure decreased to 50.5, which is 0.1 worse than forecast, and in the United States remained at 57.9, which is 0.2 worse than analysts' expectations. Services PMI in Eurozone fell to 52.8, with an expected growth to 53.2. Today decline of the euro may continue in case of negative data on the index of business sentiment in Germany (08:00 GMT). The course of trading will also be affected by the news on the housing market in the United States (1430 GMT). Given the weak macroeconomic indicators of the euro area, waiting for new stimulus measures from the ECB, the tightening of monetary policy in the United States and the Ukrainian crisis, we expect a further decline in the euro with the objectives of 1.25 and 1.22.

The price of the British pound continues to grow gradually despite weaker data on mortgage lending in the country. Thus, the index fell in August to 41,6 thousand, with an expected growth to 42.9 thousand. Investors still consider the fact that Scotland has left as a part of the United Kingdom. Today in the UK is not expected to be published an important macro and we expect continued gradual rise in prices. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, despite the limited growth potential.

The price of the yen has strengthened slightly against the background of weak economic data the United States, as well as due to the statement of Japanese Prime Minister Abe on the need to be careful due to the weakening of the yen. Despite this, the Japanese investors were disappointed by data on the manufacturing PMI, which fell in September to 51.7, versus the expected 52.5.On Friday is expected the increase of volatility of prices in connection with the release of data on consumer price inflation in the country. We expect continued downward movement of prices in the medium term, but do not exclude a correction in the near future.

The Australian dollar had a slight correction on the background of positive statistics on the index of leading economic indicators for July, which rose by 0.5% that is 0.3% better than the previous figure. The fall of the Australian dollar is continuing due to the lowest iron ore prices since September 2009, which fell below $ 80 per ton. The main reason for the fall in prices has become crisis in the construction sector in China and weak demand in the Middle East and Europe. Iron ore is the main export commodity of Australia and will continue to have a negative impact on the currency in the medium term. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

The New Zealand Dollar corrected upwards after the release of data on the country's trade balance deficit that reduced in August to 472 million. Compared with an expected increase to 1.125 billion. It is worth recalling that at the beginning of the year in the country was a substantial trade surplus, but the fall in prices for agricultural products and raw materials have become a negative factor for the country's economy. Despite the improvement, the New Zealand dollar still tends to decrease. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the New Zealand dollar.

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