24.12.2013- Trading volumes are falling, the markets are starting to celebrate Christmas
Trading day on European and U.S. stock markets ended with steady growth of the indexes. Christmas rally continues, despite the decline in trade volumes. At this time the cause for optimism was the statement by the IMF on improving of the outlook for U.S. GDP growth in 2014. Exact figures will be traditionally announced in January, but the cause for a better forecast, according to the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, is the adoption of the budget for 2014, as well as the reduction of quantitative easing program by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which indicates the steady growth of the world's largest economy.
Yesterday was published the data on personal income and spending of consumers in the U.S. in November, which was better than previous indicators. Thus, expenses increased by 0.5% as expected, and revenues by 0.2%, with growth forecast at 0.4%. The consumer confidence index remained unchanged at 82.5. The index was expected to increase to 82.9.
The price of EUR/USD was not able to return to the rising channel and after yesterday's growth to resistance at 1.3710 has started to correct. In case of further correction, the price will probably reach the support level placed at 1.3660 and then can go to 1.3620. Growth is limited by the resistance level located on a mark 1.3810.
The dynamics of trading today will depend on the data on the durable goods orders (13:30 GMT), as well as from new home sales in the U.S. (15:00 GMT). In Germany today, is a day off, and tomorrow the Western markets will be closed because of Christmas celebration, so today, trading volumes will be quite low.
The quotes of British pound continue to consolidate above the strong level 1.6320, which is unlikely to be broken today. We do not expect an increased volatility in the next days. The course of trading can be affected by the number of mortgage approvals in the UK (09:30 GMT).
USD/JPY resumed growth after yesterday's correction, but failed to reach the level of a local maximum at 104.20. Further reduction is limited by levels of 103.35 and 103.90. We expect that the price will continue to move inside the rising channel.
Australian dollar resumed the downward movement after reaching 0.8960. We expect that the national currency of Australia will continue to consolidate above the support of 0.89 and after reaching the upper limit of the downward channel will continue to decline. Fundamental reason for bearish forecast on the Australian dollar is a soft monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia, aimed at devaluing of the national currency.
After reaching a two-month highs, the prices for U.S. benchmark Light sweet crude oil, began to decline. Traders have overestimated the growth on the previous week and decided to fix some positions before the holidays. Statement by IMF head Christine Lagarde did not help the bulls, since the acceleration in GDP growth was already counted in prices. In the long term, we keep a negative outlook on oil prices. The main reason for this is the strong growth of oil production in the United States, which is now ahead of the pace of increase in fuel consumption. In case of further correction, the oil price can reach levels 97.80, 97.30 and 96.40. The growth is limited by psychological resistance at level of $ 100 per barrel.
We see a sluggish dynamics in gold. The price is consolidating near the strong level of 1200. Further movement will be determined after the holidays. The fact that stock markets are growing, and the seasonal demand for the metal in China (associated with the celebration of the New Year) will soon weaken, plays on hand of the bears. In case of further decrease, the price is likely to reach the level of 1180. Resistance is at 1220.