24.12.2014 - ​US GDP growth has strengthened the dollar

The price of the euro showed a sharp decline yesterday after the publication of the final report on US GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of this year, which has grown by 5.0%, compared with an expected increase of 4.3%. Despite this, the strengthening of the dollar was restrained by unexpectedly weak data on durable goods orders, the volume of which fell by 0.7% in November, compared with an expected growth of 3.0%. Sales of new homes in November in the US fell to 438 thousand, against the expected 461 thousand. The quotes movement today will depend on the statistics on the labor market in the US (13:30 GMT). Today, in many countries of the world is a day off and tomorrow will celebrate Christmas. In this regard, we expect low activity of traders today and save a medium-term negative outlook.

The price of the British pound fell sharply yesterday amid strengthening of the US dollar, after data on US GDP growth with the fastest pace since Q4 2003. In addition, investors were disappointed by the data on the growth of the UK balance of payments deficit that rose to 27.0 billion, against the expected 21.1 billion. At the same time, business investment in the 3rd quarter decreased by 1.4%, compared with an expected reduction of 0.7%. We anticipate low volatility of the British pound due to the holiday period, after which growth may resume.

The price of the Japanese yen strengthened slightly today against the background of US dollar correction after strong growth over the previous days. It is worth noting that the demand for defensive assets remains volatile, and is currently declining. Today, it is worth paying attention to the data on the US labor market (13:30 GMT). A large block of statistics, which will be published on Thursday and Friday did not greatly affect the course of trading in connection with the Christmas weekend. We predict the fall of the yen in the medium term.

The price of the Australian dollar continued to consolidate near the level of 0.81. The price volatility remains minimal in connection with the holiday. Publication of the index of leading economic indicators in Australia in October, which fell by 0.2%, failed to result in a significant price movement. We anticipate a continuation of the current dynamics in the coming days due to the Christmas weekend. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian currency remains negative.

The price of the New Zealand dollar continued gradual decline in the mid-term and retains a negative trend. It should be noted that the activity of investors is minimal. The New Zealand currency quotes continue to be under the pressure of the trade balance and the reduction in export prices. We expect the minimum price movements in the near future due to the holidays and keep the medium-term negative outlook.

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