24.04.2014 - ​Growth on the stock markets of America has stopped

Major U.S. indexes finished yesterday's trading session with fall. The reason for the decline was the need for correction after the rise during the previous sessions, as well as macroeconomic data. Thus, the manufacturing PMI in the U.S. in April fell to 55.4 against the forecast of growth to 56.2. New home sales in March dropped to 384 thousand, against the forecast of 455 thousand. Indicator has appeared the lowest in the last 8 months. The construction sector is vital to the American economy in general and its slowdown can greatly affect the state of the economy. We maintain a long-term negative outlook on the U.S. market.

The price of euro tried to resume growth on macro statistics, but rolled back. Thus, the service PMI of the eurozone rose in April to 53.1, against the forecast of 52.7, while the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.3 to 53.3. Today the course of trading may be affected by the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi (09:00 GMT), as well as data on labor market and durable goods orders in the U.S. (12:30 GMT). We keep medium and long term negative outlook for the euro and are w

The price of the British pound continues to move within the corridor 1,6770-1,6840. Yesterday the quotes of the pair fell amid negative data on reduction in the balance of manufacturing orders to -1, with an expected growth to 7. Also yesterday, have been published the minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of England in which was noted a positive trend in the labor market, despite the fact that many Britons work less than they wanted to. Today the dynamics of trading will depend on the statistics on retail sales (10:00 GMT) and data from the U.S. We keep medium and long term positive outlook for the pound.

The price of USD/JPY fell slightly on negative data from the U.S. Today was published the data on the price index for corporate services in Japan in March, which remained at 0.7% vs. expected growth to 0.8%. Traders await the release of data on consumer price inflation (23:30 GMT), the publication of which will lead to increased volatility in the market. Analysts expect growth of the indicator by 0.1% to 1.4%. Target level for the Bank of Japan is 2.0%. We maintain our medium-and long-term positive outlook for the pair.

The price of the Australian dollar has corrected upwards after a sharp decline yesterday. The reason for the fall was a slowdown of inflation to 0.6% vs. the forecast of 0.8%, which increased the chances of further monetary easing measures by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Today in Australia is the day off and we do not forecast strong activity of traders. We expect continued downward movement of the pair and keep midterm negative outlook.

The price of the New Zealand dollar resumed growth on the statements of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy. The regulator has decided to raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 3.0%. Tightening of monetary policy should lead to further growth of quotes, which is constrained by weak data on industrial production in China, where we still see slowdown in growth. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar with the targets near 0.8750.

Drop in oil prices has stopped near the level of $ 101 per barrel, and now the price is consolidating above this level. Oil inventories in the United States according to the Department of Energy increased by 3.5 million barrels and reached record levels of 397.66 million barrels. At the same time, traders are closely watching the growth of supplies from Libya, the situation in Ukraine and the possibility of new sanctions against Russia from the West. We expect a decline in oil prices in the long term, due to the strong growth of oil production in the United States.

The price of gold continues to consolidate above 1280 dollars per troy ounce. Investment funds reduce inventory levels of physical gold in their portfolios, and demand remains weak in Asia also due to the weakening of the Yuan, which declined to the minimum levels in 16 months. Further movement of the gold will depend on the stability in Ukraine during the holidays in early May and the situation on the stock markets. We expect the resumption of growth in the medium term.

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