25.01.2016 - Volatility at the beginning of the week declines

Major US stock indexes on the last trading day of the week showed strong growth, driven by rising oil prices and fixing the position of investors after a strong decline since the beginning of the year. Support also was the news about the growth of US manufacturing PMI, calculated by Markit, which in January rose to 52.7, against the forecast of 51.5. It is also worth noting the positive impact of hints of the ECB’s chairman Mario Draghi regarding possible additional measures to support the growth of inflation. The main event of this week will be the publication of the preliminary report on the growth of US GDP in the 4th quarter. Current growth may continue in the near future, but we expect a speedy resumption of the negative dynamics of prices.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Major European stock indexes began the trading week neutral after strong growth in the last two trading sessions, which was due to the positive influence of the speech of Mario Draghi, in which the head of the ECB hinted at strengthening measures to increase inflation in the euro area, which may happen in March, after the next meeting of the ECB. At the same time, the rise in oil prices has led to increased interest in the shares of commodity companies. Today, we should pay attention to the data on the index of business sentiment in Germany from the Ifo (09:00 GMT) and the speech of the ECB President (18:00 GMT). The main event for the British market this week will be the publication of the preliminary report on the GDP growth in the 4th quarter, which will be held on Thursday. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but the negative impact of external factors may adversely affect the growth of European indices.

Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region today showed growth after the US stock market. The growth in commodity markets and reduced fears about the situation in China supported the bulls. The fall of the yen is positively displayed on the value of shares of export companies. Hints of the ECB on the willingness of the ECB to strengthen measures to counter deflationary risks will positively affect the mood of investors. The data on the trade balance of Japan, whose surplus in December was 0.04 trillion yen compared to the forecast of 0.08 trillion yen has not much impact on investor sentiment. The situation in the region remains volatile, but in the nearest future growth may continue.

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