25.02.2015 - Consumer confidence of investors in the United States disappointed traders
The price of euro continued its movement around the level of 1.1350 after yesterday's statement by the Federal Reserve, according to which the interest rates probably will not be raised in the next two meetings, but the improvement in the labor market increases the likelihood of monetary tightening this year. The European Commission confirmed the preliminary agreement to extend the loan program for Greece for 4 months. Today the course of trading again will affect the speech of the ECB chairman, Mario Draghi (16:30 GMT) and Fed chief Janet Yellen (15:00 GMT). Particular attention should be paid to the statistics on sales of new US homes in January (15:00 GMT). Given the launch of quantitative easing in the euro area in March, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions on the euro.
The price of the British pound continued movement near the levels of local maximums. Investors are in no hurry to build up positions ahead of today's speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney (10:00 GMT), as well as tomorrow's publication of important statistics on GDP growth in the 4th quarter of last year. Negative for the British pound and the euro remains the reduction of a slowdown in the economy. We expect continued growth in prices of the British currency in the near future and recommend to keep short-term long positions.
The price of the Japanese yen rose yesterday after claiming Janet Yellen in the US Senate, which failed to indicate to investors on the exact timing of the Fed raising interest rates. Statistics on consumer confidence in the United States from the Conference Board showed a decline to 96.4, against the expected drop to 99.6. Consolidation of the yen according to our forecasts will continue until Friday when will be published a large block of macroeconomic statistics on Japan and will be released the data on US GDP growth. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen.
The price of the Australian dollar has shown strong growth on the weakening of the US dollar, as well as in connection with the publication of statistics on completion of construction in Australia, the volume of which fell by 0.2% against the expected reduction of 1.2%. It is worth noting the positive statistics on manufacturing PMI in China, which according to preliminary data, rose to 50.1 in February, which is 0.5 better than analysts' expectations. Despite the current growth, we keep negative medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar due to low commodity prices and the weakness of the labor market in the country.
The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a strong growth against the backdrop of unexpectedly high manufacturing PMI in China, which rose to 50.1, indicating expansion in the sector. Analysts had expected that the figure will be 49.6. Increased volatility in the New Zealand dollar is expected today after the release of important macroeconomic data on the trade balance of the country (21:45 GMT). According to our estimates the trade deficit will be reduced and will support the national currency. We forecast growth of the New Zealand dollar in the near future.