25.02.2016 - Investors are waiting for the US GDP data that will be published tomorrow
American stock indexes showed growth against the background of the oil price recovery. Investors fear further decline in stock market indexes after yesterday was published weak data on services PMI, which fell in February to 49.8, against the forecast of 53.4. At the same time, sales of new homes in January was only 494 million against the forecast of 522 thousand. Today, the focus of investors will be on the statistics on the volume of orders for durable goods (13:30 GMT). Investor activity will be limited due to the expected publication of the preliminary report on US GDP growth tomorrow. We forecast a drop in the US stock market indexes in the coming months.
European stock indexes are now showing a positive dynamics amid the recent recovery in oil prices, as well as the positive impact of growth in the US indexes. Today was published preliminary data on GDP growth in the UK in Q4, which was 0.5% that coincided with forecasts of analysts. The consumer price index in the euro area showed an increase of 0.3% in January from 0.4% in December. Weak inflation increases the likelihood of extended measures to stimulate the growth of the euro area economy, which will be positively displayed on quotes of the European companies. Our medium-term outlook remains positive.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a decline today. The biggest fall was recorded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Volatility of indexes in the region remains high amid concerns over the pace of China's industry and economy as a whole. The Japanese market has shown growth and continues to strongly depend on the dynamics of the national currency, strengthening of which has negative impact on financial performance of export-oriented companies. Tomorrow we should pay attention to inflation data in Japan. The high level of volatility is likely to continue in the near future and once the situation stabilizes, we expect the resumption of growth on the markets of the region.