25.03.2016 - Activity on the market today is low
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro today continues to move through the local downtrend. It should be noted that today in most European countries and the US is a holiday and activity on the market will be minimal. The reason for the strengthening of the dollar remains the statements by the Fed regarding the possibility of more than two increases in US interest rates against the background of positive inflation expectations and the positive statistics on the US labor market. Today, the focus of investors will be on the final data on US GDP growth in the 4th quarter of last year (12:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound yesterday showed a correction on the background of a number of factors. Thus, investors fixed positions ahead of the long weekend, the data on retail sales in the UK, the volume of which fell by 0.4% that is better than the forecast of decline by 0.7%, as well as the weak statistics on orders for durable goods in the US, which decreased by 2.8% in February that is 0.2% better than expected. Today and on Monday in the UK is the weekend. We expect a further decline of the British pound against the background of the country's exit from the Eurozone risks, after the referendum on the issue in early summer.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to fall against the US dollar due to increased demand for the dollar from importers, as well as by reducing the level of investors' concerns about the growth prospects of the global economy and the situation on the stock and commodity markets. Basic index of consumer inflation in Japan in February remained at 0.0% vs. anticipated 0.1%, which increases the likelihood of further stimulus steps by the Bank of Japan. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook on the yen and forecast its fall in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a correction on the background of low trading volumes because of a weekend in the country, due to the Easter holidays. Strong influence on quotations continues to have the price of oil. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative and we look forward to the resumption of decline next week.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to gradually decline against the US dollar, against the background of the probability of the Fed tightening of monetary policy in the near future. Positive data on the country's trade, where is increasing exports of dairy products, have not been able to change the mood of investors. Activity on the market is low in connection with the celebration of Easter. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.