25.04.2016 - The growth of the dollar has led to a decline in gold prices
The price of gold showed a strong decline at the end of last week on a stronger US dollar against the yen and the euro. Investors ignored the weak data on US manufacturing PMI from Markit which in April fell to 50.8 against the forecast of growth to 51.9. The central event of this week will be the Fed's statement on monetary policy. We do not expect any change in interest rates, but the rhetoric in the statement may affect the market forecasts on further steps of the Fed on monetary policy. In case of decrease in the stock markets, which is possible in the coming weeks, the growth of the price of gold will continue with the potential of reaching the level of 1300 dollars per troy ounce, but the expected tightening of the Fed's monetary policy until the end of the year will lead to a decrease in quotations to the level of 1100 dollars per troy ounce. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
The price of futures on Light Sweet crude oil continues to consolidate after recent gains. To continue the upward momentum are needed new incentives. The reason for the recent increase was the news about the decline in US oil output to 8.95 million barrels per day and the strikes in Kuwait. Despite this, the supply and demand imbalance on the market is maintained thanks to the growth of oil supplies from Iran, Libya and Russia. Investments in oil and gas sector began to grow, but given the lack of fundamental factors capable of supporting a further increase in prices, we expect the fall in prices of oil in the coming months.