American stock indexes showed a strong rise yesterday. The leader of growth was the banking sector, which has been supported by the growth of the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in the near future. In addition, a strong stimulus for the growth was the news on the growth of sales of new homes to the highest level since 2008. Thus, the figure was 619 thousand against 531 thousand in March. This fact points to an improvement in the US economy, because the construction sector is the key one. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the US preliminary data on oil inventories (14:30 GMT), which can lead to a strong movement of prices of oil and energy sector shares. The central event of the week will be the publication of preliminary data on US GDP growth for the 1st quarter. We forecast a drop in US markets in the coming weeks.
The main European stock indices are showing a upward trend against the background of positive from the US, rising oil prices, as well as the positive statistics from Germany, where consumer confidence index in June was 9.8, which is 0.1 more than the previous value, and in the business sentiment index in Germany grew by 1.0 to 107.7 in May. Tomorrow, in the focus will be publication of preliminary data on GDP growth in the UK. In addition, investors are closely watching the results of the survey on the future of the country's referendum on membership in the EU. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but we do not exclude the fall of the index in the coming weeks.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed strong growth against a background of optimism associated with an increase in stocks in the United States. It should also be noted the positive dynamics of shares of exporters, amid the weakening of the US dollar against the yen. Investors are waiting for Friday's publication of the statistics on inflation in Japan, and the growth of US GDP in the 1st quarter. The dynamics of the stock markets continued to be affected by the situation on the commodity markets. According to our estimates, the growth on the markets of the region is more likely in the medium term, but the probability of the fall will remain high in the near future.