25.06.2015 - ​The price of euro continues to consolidate

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to consolidate around the level of 1.1200, despite the lack of results on the negotiations between Greece and its creditors. Publication of the final report of the US GDP in the first quarter showed a decrease in the country's economy in the 1st quarter to 0.2%, in line with analysts' forecasts and was 0.5% higher than the previous estimate. In Europe today, the continue negotiations on Greek reforms and their success is likely to lead to short-term growth of the euro. Among macroeconomic data in the United States we should pay attention to the number of initial applications for unemployment insurance in the US, personal income and consumer spending (12:30 GMT), as well as performances by the Fed. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the euro, and we are waiting for the signal for the opening short positions.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound declined against the background of statistics on the housing market in the country. Thus, the number of approved applications for mortgage lending was 42.5 thousand, compared with an expected 43,1 thousand. Hawkish statement by the representative of the Bank of England Vale, on the need to raise interest rates due to the improved situation on the labor market could not support the British currency. Today, it is worth paying attention to the balance of retail sales in the UK (10:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative and we expect a decrease in prices in the near future.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened against the background of growing demand for the defensive assets due to the lack of consensus between Greece and its creditors. It should be recalled that the country has to pay about 1.6 billion euros on the IMF loan till 30 June and in the case of the failure of negotiations may default. The data on reduction of US GDP in Q1 could not influence the course of trading. Tomorrow in Japan will be published statistics on household spending, unemployment rate and the consumer price index, which will increase volatility. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar is corrected upwards amid the weakening of the US dollar, as well as due to technical factors. Investors continue to follow the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which announced plans for further monetary easing in case of the need to maintain economic growth in the country. In addition, the slowdown in the Chinese economy and low commodity prices put pressure on quotations of the national currency of the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar is corrected upwards after strong decline in the previous days. It is worth noting a slight positive effect of the weakening US dollar on quotation of the New Zealand currency. Tonight (22:45 GMT), will be published statistics on the trade balance in New Zealand, which traditionally leads to a strong increase in volatility. The current correction may continue in the near future, but the medium-term outlook for the New Zealand currency remains negative.

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