American stock indexes continued to rise on Friday against the background of positive corporate reporting of a number of companies. In addition, optimism has increased due to improved statistics on the index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector, which was 52.9 in July versus 51.3 in June. Today is expected not expected important statistics in the US, but tomorrow we should pay attention to the news on the US housing market. The central event of the week will also be a statement of the Fed's monetary policy, which will be published on Wednesday, preliminary data on US GDP growth in the second quarter, which will be released on Friday. We forecast a drop in the medium term.
European stock markets today show a positive dynamics today with the exception of the UK. It should be noted that the index of business confidence in Germany in July totaled 108.3 vs. expected 107.7, despite the results of the referendum on EU membership. The balance of production orders in the UK in July totaled -4, against -2 in the previous month. The dynamics of trading on European markets this week will be heavily influenced by external factors such as the statements of the central banks of the US and Japan, as well as the situation on commodity markets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the expected negative impact of the UK exit’s from the EU.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region today completed trades near the previous close. The weakening of the yen and the positive statistics on the trade balance of Japan, which surplus in June increased to 0.33 trillion yen against the previous level of 0.29 trillion yen, supported optimism. Investors in the region are waiting for Friday when will be released reports on inflation, industrial production, and Japan's labor market, and will also be published the statement of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy. In case of additional incentives, we expect a sharp rise on the Japanese market. Growth on the markets may continue in the near future, but the risks remain high.