25.08.2016 - Investors fear the uncertainty on the markets
American stock indexes showed a decrease amid the growth of speculations regarding rhetoric of the head of the Fed on terms of interest rates hike. It is worth noting that the tightening of monetary policy negative displays on the stock markets, which have no significant driver for the continued growth and renewal of historic highs. Today, the trading will affect the dynamics of news on the volume of orders for durable goods in the US (12:30 GMT). Investor’s activity will be constrained by tomorrow's speech by Janet Yellen at a symposium in Jackson Hole. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and the probability of a decline in the next few days has significantly increased.
European stocks today show a decline amid uncertainty related to the pressure of tomorrow's speech of Fed conference in Jackson Hole. Negative dynamics on the German market strengthened because of weak statistics on the index of sentiment in the business circles of the country to 106.2 against the forecast of growth to 108.5. On the other hand, in the UK retail the balance of retail unexpectedly increased to in August to 9 against -14 in July. Future exit of the UK from the EU will have a negative impact on the dynamics of the markets in the region. According to our estimates, the decline on European markets will continue in the medium and short term.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region have changed slightly today amid expectations of important news from the US, where began the Fed symposium. In case of an early hint of the Fed's tightening of monetary policy this year, we will see a fall in world stock markets. Tomorrow will be published important data on inflation in Japan, the fall of which may result in additional incentive measures by the Bank of Japan. It is worth noting that the People's Bank of China has confirmed its intention to provide liquidity to support economic growth. We expect increased volatility in the next week and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.