25.09.2014 - Investor sentiment improved on the background of data on the housing market in the United States
The American stock indexes rose yesterday in connection with an unexpectedly strong data on the housing market in the United States, where sales of new homes rose to its highest level since 2008 - 504 thousand in August, against 427 thousand in July. Today, trade dynamics will depend on the news on the durable goods orders number of initial unemployment claims (12:30 GMT) and services PMI (13:45 GMT). Macroeconomic indicators in the United States are strong enough, but for the continued growth are needed additional incentives. We admit the possibility of further growth in the near future, but expect a significant correction in the medium term.
European stocks yesterday also showed a positive trend due to increased optimism on the American market, and despite negative statistics from Germany. Thus, the index of business confidence in Germany fell to 10.7 in September, against 106.3 in August. Today, the course of trading may be affected by the data on the M3 money supply in the Eurozone (08:00 GMT), the balance of retail sales in the UK (10:00 GMT) and the speech of the head of the Bank of England (12:40 GMT). The European market is under the pressure of weak macro and the effects of Ukrainian crisis. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the European market and note the limited growth potential of the European indexes.
Most stock indexes of the Asia-Pacific region ended the trading session lower. Low prices for iron ore, copper and other metals indicates a weakening of growth of Chinese industry, that besides the Chinese markets have a negative effect on Australian investors. The Japanese market has shown growth due to the devaluation of the yen and the positive statistics on the housing market in the United States. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the consumer price index in Japan and the index of leading indicators in China. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the markets in the region.