25.09.2015 - Janet Yellen forecasts a rise in interest rates before the end of the year

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday corrected upwards on the back of weak statistics on the volume of orders for durable goods, which in August fell by 2.0%, in line with analysts' forecasts. At the same time, the dynamics changed after the publication of a strong report on new home sales in the US, whose number in August rose to 552 thousand against the expected 516 thousand. The main support for the dollar was the statement by the head of the Fed Janet Yellen in which she noted that, along with most colleagues expect the Fed raising interest rates before the end of this year due to the steady growth in the labor market and anticipation of accelerating inflation. Today, we should pay attention to the final data on US GDP growth for the second quarter (12:30 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a decline of the euro today.

Currency trading and the euro. The price of the British pound continued to consolidate against the backdrop of mixed sentiment. So, on the one hand, the number of permits issued for mortgage lending in the country has grown to 46.7 thousand, vs. expected 46.3 thousand, but a strong statistics on new home sales in the US and the speech of the Fed chairwoman, which has strengthened confidence in raising interest rates December, had a negative impact on the British pound. Today is possible increase in volatility after the statement of the Bank of England on Financial Policy (8:30 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook, but after a long decline can see the correction of price.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen declined today due to a number of factors. Thus, the strengthening of the US dollar negatively affected the Japanese currency. In addition, the core consumer price index in August was -0.1%, against 0.0% in July. This fact may lead to additional stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan. It is worth noting that the Government of Japan said in its monthly report about reduced estimation of growth in the economy due to the negative impact of slowing growth in China. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen, and after the current consolidation.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar corrected upwards after a strong fall in recent days. Currently quotes are consolidated around the psychologically important 0.70 level. The main factors that continues to adversely affect the Australian currency remains low export prices, concerns about weak growth in China and the strengthening of the US dollar. We expect a further decline in the price of the Australian currency in the medium term, but do not exclude a technical correction.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed an upward correction but could not continue to grow and has stabilized. In the near future the price will probably continue to consolidate around current levels. Waiting for easing monetary policy and deterioration in the balance of payments continue to have a negative impact on share quotes. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.

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