25.11.2014 - Volatility will rise today after the publication of US GDP data
US stock indexes yesterday showed a slight increase. Increase of indexes was restrained by weak data on the service PMI, which in November fell to 56.3, which is 1.0 worse than the forecast and 0.8 less than in October. It is worth noting that investors are in no hurry to build up positions before the publication of data on US GDP for the 3rd quarter (13:30 GMT). It is predicted that the rate will be 3.3%. Today the course of trading may also be affected by the data on house prices index (14:00 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in the US (15:00 GMT). We expect further growth of the index, but its potential remains low.
Major European indexes have updated two-month high yesterday amid expectations of activation of stimulus measures by the ECB, which intends to intensify the steps against low inflation in the region. Yesterday markets were supported by news on the growth of index of business confidence in Germany to 104.7, against the forecast of 103.0. Today it was announced that Germany's GDP in the 3rd quarter increased by 0.1%, in line with analysts' forecasts. Traders expect today's meeting of the British Parliament on inflation (10:00 GMT) and US GDP data. We expect continued growth of European indexes in the near future, but we want to note the weakness of the EU economy, which continues to put pressure on the index.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a positive trend. The Japanese market rose today after a day off yesterday. The Japanese market expects the elections to the lower house of parliament. According to the polls, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will retain the support of Parliament, which will continue the policy of stimulating economic growth. Positive for the entire region was the message of interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China, in addition, the market has information about the readiness of the Chinese regulator for further reduction of interest rates. Against this background, we improve our outlook on the markets in the region, but we believe the potential growth is limited due to problems in the construction sector in China.