25.11.2015 - Rising commodity prices supported the Australian dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro stabilized around local minimum and slow decline against the publication of conflicting statistics. Thus, GDP growth in Germany in the 3rd quarter slowed to 0.3%, which is 0.1% less than in the previous period. At the same time statistics on the growth of US GDP in the last quarter was revised upward to 2.1%, which is 0.6% better than in the second quarter and 0.1% more than the forecast. It should be noted that the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board in November fell to 90.4 against expectations of 99.3. Today will be published important statistics on the volume of durable goods orders, personal income and consumer spending in the US (13:30 GMT). Tomorrow in the US is a day off and investors will not rush to accumulate positions. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to decline and approached the local minimum on the background of soft rhetoric of representatives of the Bank of England. Thus, Mark Carney said about the need to maintain interest rates at low levels due to the expected saving of inflation below the target level of 2.0% in the following quarters. The balance of retail sales in the UK fell unexpectedly in November to 7, compared with an expected growth of up to 25. According to our forecasts, the volatility in the coming days will decrease, and we may see a correction after a sharp fall in recent days.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen rose slightly against the background of fixing positions of investors before the celebration of Thanksgiving Day in the United States on Thursday. In addition, the demand for defensive assets increased after the Russian warplane was shot down by a Turkish fighter jet near the Turkish-Syrian border, which increased geopolitical tensions. In addition, the Bank of Japan said that core inflation will approach the level of 2.0% at the end of 2016 and at the moment there is no need for further monetary easing. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for further decline of the yen against the dollar due to the expected tightening of monetary policy of the Fed.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar strengthened against the backdrop of rising prices for oil and copper due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, due to the fear of disruption of oil supplies in the region. We estimate the impact of this factor as temporary and investors will come back to the possibility of easing the RBA monetary policy despite the possible increase in inflation in the country. We expect the resumption of the negative dynamics of prices in the near future and look forward to the signals to open short positions.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar rose following the price of commodities and an increase in the Australian currency. The price is consolidating in anticipation of today's publication of a report on the trade balance of the country (21:45 GMT), which is likely to have a negative impact on the price of the national currency of New Zealand. In the coming months the dynamics will depend on the Fed's decision, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which can change the settings of monetary policy which divergence will lead to a further drop in the New Zealand dollar to the target levels around 0.60. We expect falling prices in the medium term.