25.02.2014 - Traders do not hurry with actions and are waiting for the Friday data

U.S. stock indexes showed a steady growth during the first trading session of the week, despite the negative data on the index of business activity in the U.S. service sector. Thus, the figure in February dropped to 52.7 against the forecast of growth to 56.9. Yesterday also was published a report on consumer price inflation in the euro area, which has grown by 0.1% to 0.8%. As a result, the growth of quotations euro has stopped. Today, in the focus will be the data on GDP growth in Germany in Q4 (07:00 GMT) and also will be published the European Commission economic forecast (12:45 GMT). Among the important macro from the U.S., we should pay attention to the house prices index (14:00 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in February (15:00 GMT).

Further growth of the euro is quite limited. In the medium term, we expect devaluation, but before that the price still can reach the level of a local maximum of about 1.38. Significant role this week will play the data on unemployment in the euro area and data on GDP growth in the U.S., which will be rele

The British pound during the correction has reached the strong support of 1.66. UK economy looks strong enough. Most companies in the service sector stated that they intend to raise the number of staff in the next quarter. The head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney said that low interest rates will not be reviewed until officials will not be confident in the steady growth of the economy.

In this case they will take into account not only unemployment, but also other indicators. Thus, we keep a long-term positive outlook for the pound. The course of trading today will be affected by the data on the number of mortgage approvals (09:30 GMT), the balance of retail sales (11:00 GMT). At 10:00 GMT will be held a meeting of the British Parliament on inflation.

USD/JPY continues to consolidate within the triangle. The price index for corporate services, which grew by 0.8% with growth forecast at 1.2%, could not lead to a strong price movement. Volatility is expected to increase on Friday, when will be published a large block of macroeconomic data in Japan and the United States. Due to the continued loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, we keep long-term and medium-term positive outlook for the USD/JPY.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars increased synchronously today on the background of statistics from China. Thus, investors were pleased by index of leading economic indicators, which rose in January by 1.2% compared to 0.8% in December. Despite the refusal of the Reserve Bank of Australia on further reduction of rates, monetary policy in the country is still soft, and even the risk of inflation will not lead to its tightening in the near future. We maintain a long-term negative outlook for the AUD/USD. Price movement in the next week will depend on the data from the U.S.

Increased volatility on the New Zealand dollar is forecasted on Thursday, after the release of data on the trade balance of the country. Traders will closely monitor the data from China, which is the main trade partner. We maintain our negative long-term outlook for the pair. Significant growth in the near future is not predicted.

Light sweet crude oil increased slightly due to lower oil production in Libya, which is associated with new protests. At the same time, prices were supported by news from the G-20 summit, where finance ministers agreed to implement policies that will increase the GDP in the next 5 years for 2 trillion dollars or 2%. At the same time investors are concerned about slowing growth in China and record production levels in the United States. In the long and medium term, we expect a decline in prices. Today will be published a report on oil inventories in the U.S. (21:30 GMT).

Gold prices are near four-month high. The reasons for the growth remain the concerns about the continued growth on the stock markets and also a slowdown in the largest gold consumer - China. We believe that increasing uncertainty will stimulate further growth of gold prices in the medium and long term.

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