25.08.2014 - Dollar continued to rise after the speech by Janet Yellen
The price of euro continued to fall after the speech the head of FED Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi at a symposium in Jackson Hole. Thus, Mrs. Yellen said that the more rapid growth of employment may lead to an earlier rise in interest rates, but at the same time noted the large number of people who could not find work and are no longer looking for it, as well as a significant number of people who are partially occupied. Mario Draghi announced the readiness to continue to use non-standard tools to fight inflation and low interest in TLTRO noted by banks. Today the course of trading will be affected by the data on the index of business sentiment in Germany (08:00 GMT) and new home sales in the United States (14:00 GMT). The price of euro reached our first target, and can correct upwards, but the medium-term outlook remains negative with a target about 1.28.
The price of the British pound continued to fall against the strengthening of the dollar after the speech by Fed chairman on Friday. Today in the UK is the day off and trading dynamics will depend on the movement of the dollar. This week the course of trading will be affected by the retail sales data on Thursday and the house price index on Friday. To start price correction will be needed substantial stimulus. Volatility in the near future is likely to be low. We look forward to the beginning of the price correction in the medium term and growth after the referendum on Scottish independence.
The Japanese yen continued to fall this week after investors once again heard the Fed's intention to tighten monetary policy in case of improvement on the labor market of the country. Trading week promises to be calm and with low volatility. Tomorrow, investors will be focused on the negotiations between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, which may lead to the termination of the conflict in the east of Ukraine. Large block of macro-statistics will be published on Friday. We look forward to continuing devaluation of the yen in the medium term.
The price of the Australian dollar was unable to continue its upward movement due to the strengthening of the American currency after a speech by Fed chairman at the meeting in Jackson Hole. Tightening of monetary policy of the USA and maintenance of low interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia will further reduce quotations of the Australian dollar. In addition, the macroeconomic indicators remain weak. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar with the objectives of 0.92 and 0.89.
The price of the New Zealand dollar fell sharply against the strengthening of US dollar, after a statement in favor of tighter monetary policy. Tonight is expected to be published the data on the trade balance of New Zealand in July (22:45 GMT), after which the course of trading can be affected by the data on the index of leading economic indicators in China. We look forward to continuing the downward price movement in the near future.