26.01.2015 - Opposition forces win parliamentary elections in Greece
The fall of price euro continued on news from Greece, where the parliamentary elections, apparently has won an opposition party Syriza. It is worth mentioning that this political force opposes the austerity measures that are necessary to restructure the debts of the country. This fact increases the risks of instability in the financial sector in the Eurozone. Last week, the ECB decided to launch a program of quantitative easing, which is the main reason for the strong price reduction. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the index of business sentiment in Germany (09:00 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions on the euro.
The price of the British pound has stabilized around the level of 1.50 and cannot continue to decline. On Friday, the reason for stopping the decline was the data on retail sales in December, which rose by 0.4%, against an expected decline by 0.6%. At the same time, the fall of the euro continues to put pressure on the British currency quotes. Today will be published statistics on the number of permits issued for mortgage lending (09:30 GMT), but the central event of the week will be the publication of preliminary data on GDP growth tomorrow. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the British pound.
The price of the Japanese yen resumed falling after a slight strengthening. Today was published statistics on the country's trade balance deficit which in December totaled 0.71 trillion and for the 2014 had risen to 12.781 trillion, which is the highest rate since 1979. Minutes of meetings of the Bank of Japan showed no change in sentiments of the regulator. Investors monitor the results of the elections in Greece, where the opposition Syriza wins, which increases the demand for defensive assets in connection with the probability of destabilizing the situation in the financial sector in the Eurozone. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the yen, but the demand for the Japanese currency may be increased in the near future.
The Australian dollar slowed the decline amid a weekend in the country. Today is the Australia Day. Quotations of Australian currency is still under the pressure of falling commodity prices and the expectation of a lower interest rate of the Reserve Bank of Australia, following the Bank of Canada. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the index of business sentiment in Australia and the index of leading economic indicators in China. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to decline gradually after reached and has overcome the target level of 0.7500. The main stimulus for the decline in recent days is the expectation of monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to support economic growth amid falling commodity prices. The central event of the week will be the RBNZ statement on Wednesday evening. We maintain our current negative view of the New Zealand dollar and recommend holding short positions.