26.01.2016 - The fall of oil presses on the market
Major US stock indices showed a decline after the upward correction. The reason for the deterioration in sentiment on the market was the resumption of the negative dynamics of oil prices. At the moment, the fundamental factors including oversupply and a slowdown in oil consumption growth, indicates a continuation of the negative dynamics in the coming months. Investors continue to monitor the corporate reporting season in the US, which promises to be worse than the previous. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect news on service PMI in the US (14:45 GMT) and the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (15:00 GMT), but traders will be waiting for the Fed's decision on interest rates tomorrow, and preliminary data on US GDP growth in Q4 on Friday. We expect the decline in the indexes in the coming months.
European stocks fell yesterday and today, but are restoring positions today. The fall in the Asian markets and lower oil prices increase investors' concerns about the global GDP growth. Investors are waiting for news on the GDP growth in the UK, France and Spain, which will be published on Thursday and Friday. In general, the attractiveness of European markets is higher than the American or Asian assets against the backdrop of the expected decline in the euro, low oil prices and the quantitative easing program. We remain medium-term positive outlook, but negative for the markets in the region could be the negative dynamics of the markets in the US and Asia.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region fell sharply today after a temporary improvement in sentiment, which was caused by a correction on the markets. Injections of liquidity by the National Bank of China in the amount of 67.1 billion dollars failed to reassure investors concerns about a possible reduction in the yuan, together with the fall in oil prices that has led to a drop in the markets of the region. Markets are waiting for the decision of the Bank of Japan’s statement on monetary policy, which will be published on Friday. In case of additional incentives from the regulator, the Japanese yen and decrease in the country's stock market will rise. We expect continued instability in the region in the near future.