26.02.2015 - Markets are waiting for the data on GDP growth in the UK
The price of euro rose slightly yesterday after the Fed chief said that interest rates at the next meeting will not be raised in connection with low inflation and wage levels. At the same time was published statistics on new home sales, which in January fell by 1 thousand, to 481 thousand, but were 10 thousand better than analysts' expectations. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the news on the labor market in Germany (8:55 GMT), the target volume of program LTRO (10:15 GMT), as well as data on the labor market, the consumer price index and durable goods orders in the US (13:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative in connection with the launch of quantitative easing and the problems associated with the Greek debt.
The price of the British Pound continues to grow gradually amid weakening of the US dollar after the statements of the Federal Reserve on saving the interest rates at the next meeting of the regulator. Support for the British currency was also the data on the increase in the number of permits for mortgage lending in the country, which has grown to 36.4 million that is 0.2 thousand better than analysts' forecasts. Today, the focus will be on the statistics on the growth of UK GDP in the 4th quarter of last year (09:30 GMT). We expect further growth of prices in the near future and expect increased volatility today.
The price of the Japanese yen continues to move within a narrow range. On the one hand the Japanese currency quotes were supported by decline of the US dollar, but on the other hand, investors are waiting for the publication of important statistics from Japan and the US GDP growth, which may lead to a strong price movement at the end of the week. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to lower demand from investors for the defensive assets, expectations of tighter monetary policy in the United States and its weakening in Japan.
The price of the Australian dollar has fallen due to correction after strong growth on the previous day, as well as in connection with the statistics on reduction of the volume of private investment by 2.2%, which is 0.3% worse than analysts' expectations. In addition, the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia has risen to 50%. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data from the US. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian currency at the deterioration in the labor market of the country, a decrease in investments and risks associated with the crisis in the real estate market in China.
Price of the New Zealand dollar showed growth on the background of positive statistics on the country's trade balance surplus which totaled 56 million, against an expected decline of 162 million. Reducing the Australian currency restrained the growth of the New Zealand dollar, but was not able to change the mood of investors. The reason for the improvement in the trade balance was a rise in prices for dairy products, which is a key export commodity of the country. We expect continued growth in prices and recommend holding long positions in the near future.