26.02.2016 - Potential of oil price growth is limited

The price of gold continues to consolidate after previously stabilized in anticipation of news from the G-20 summit and today's publication of the second preliminary report on American GDP growth (13:30 GMT). More positive statistics will lead to the expectation of an earlier Fed raising interest rates. The uncertainty on the stock and commodity markets is the main reason for the growth of gold as a safe asset. Our medium-term outlook for gold remains negative due to the growth outlook of the US dollar and expectations of speculation about rising interest rates.

The price of futures on Light Sweet crude oil shows an increase amid the weakening of the US dollar, as well as in connection with the fixing of positions before the release of important statistics on US GDP growth in Q4 (13:30 GMT). The potential of this growth is limited due to the expectation of further growth in oil production in Iran, which will compensate the possible reduction of production in the US this year. In the near future we expect a resumption of the negative dynamics of oil prices and maintain the medium-term negative outlook with the targets of 28 and 25 dollars per barrel.

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