26.02.2016 - The New Zealand dollar rose against the background of strong statistics on the trade balance
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro has shown growth on the background of technical factors due to the recent fall. Investors decided to take profits ahead of today's publication of the second preliminary report on US GDP for the 4th quarter (13:30 GMT). At the same time, it will be published data on personal income and spending of consumers and the US trade balance (13:30 GMT). The impact on the dynamics of trades will also have news on consumer confidence in the US (15:00 GMT). We expect a rise in volatility today, and our medium-term outlook on the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound corrected upwards after the recent sharp fall and overcoming the important level of 1.40. Yesterday was published the second preliminary report on the growth of UK’s GDP in Q4, according to which the country's economy grew by 0.5%, which coincided with the forecast but was 0.1% better than the indicator of the 3rd quarter. Today, the dynamics of trading will depend on external factors. We expect strong price movements in the coming months and expect the growth of the British pound after the referendum on membership in the EU, which will take place on 23 June.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen after recent fall against the backdrop of technical factors and the strengthening of the US dollar, renewed growth before today's meeting of the representatives of the G-20, who will discuss coordinated actions within on monetary policy of the member countries. Japan's core consumer price index remained unchanged in January, despite the forecast of decline by 0.2%. Today we may see a strong price movement after the release of US GDP data (13:30 GMT). On Monday, we should pay attention to the statistics on retail sales and industrial production in Japan. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed strong growth against the backdrop of rising oil prices and a weakening US dollar. It is worth noting the strong dependence of the price of the Australian dollar from commodity prices, and in the case of upward correction in commodity markets, we will see continued growth, but its potential is limited. We forecast a drop of the Australian dollar in the medium term and soon we can also see the price drop.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed strong growth against the publication of a report on the trade balance of the country, which unexpectedly showed a surplus of 8 million against the projected deficit of 250 million. It is worth noting the growth of exports of dairy products in China, which increased the country's dependence on this commodity group. In addition, support for the New Zealand currency was a positive trend of the Australian dollar. In the near future we may see a correction after the strong price growth. Our medium-term outlook also remains negative.