26.04.2016 - Volatility on the market is reduced before the Fed statement
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro corrected yesterday after last week's decline. On the trading dynamics influenced news on new home sales in the US, which fell to 511 thousand in March, which was 10 thousand less than the forecast of analysts. Today, the focus will be on the statistics on the volume of durable goods orders (12:30 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board (14:00 GMT). The investors are in no hurry to accumulate positions ahead of tomorrow's publication of the Fed statement on monetary policy in which may be hints on the timing of Fed raising interest rates. We expect the fall of the euro in the medium term, but do not exclude the continuation of growth of the price today.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to rise against the background of positive expectations about the referendum on the country's membership in the European Union, after US President Barack Obama has expressed support for the country staying within the EU. In addition, the balance of production orders in the UK in April totaled -11 vs. expected -17. Tomorrow will be published preliminary data on GDP growth in the UK in Q1. We expect the resumption of the negative dynamics of the British pound in the near future amid fears of the UK’s exit from the EU.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen corrected after the recent decline. The main impact on the dynamics of trading this week will have the results of the meeting of the US and Japanese central banks. Earlier speculation regarding possible adoption of negative credit interest rate of the Bank of Japan has led to a fall in the yen. We expect strong growth in volatility on Thursday after the statement of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy, as well as the publication of forecasts for inflation and growth of the country's GDP. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has stabilized in anticipation of a new stimulus. Strong influence on the price in the near future will have the dynamics of commodity prices and the US dollar's movement. Tomorrow volatility growth is possible after the publication of data on the consumer price index in the 1st quarter. In the case of its growth, will be reduced the likelihood of the RBA’s interest rate decrease that will be positively displayed on the price. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar stopped the fall against the US dollar. Investors took a wait before the release of an important report on the trade balance of the country (22:45 GMT) and the RBNZ statement on monetary policy tomorrow night. Given the improvement in macroeconomic indicators in New Zealand, the central bank probably will keep monetary policy settings unchanged. Our medium-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar remains negative.