26.05.2016 - The potential for further growth of indexes is limited
American stock indexes showed moderate growth yesterday. The reason for optimism was the increase in oil prices in connection with the publication of data on US oil inventories reduction by 4.2 million barrels. It is worth noting that today, the course of trading will affect the news durable goods orders (12:30 GMT), and tomorrow in the focus will be the publication of data on the US GDP growth in the 1st quarter and the speech of the Fed chief, which may affect investors' expectations about the timing of interest rate increases in the US, which is a negative for the stock markets. Our forecast for next week remains negative, despite the possibility of continuing the current upward momentum in the coming days.
European stocks today show modest growth after the increase in the last few days. It is worth noting that according to the preliminary report, the growth of UK’s GDP in Q1 was 0.4%, in line with expectations. On the trading dynamics will continue to influence volatile commodities’ prices. Optimism is also associated with improved expectations about the outcome of the referendum on the UK's membership of the EU, as well as the weakening of the euro against the dollar, which supported the stocks of exporters. Our medium-term outlook for markets in the region is optimistic, but in the coming weeks, there is a probability of starting the correction.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region ended the day with little change on the expectation of new incentives and the lack of important events. It should be noted that support for the Japanese market brcame speculations about a possible refusal of the Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe from increasing sales tax from 8% to 10% next year. Rising oil prices supported the commodity companies. We expect tomorrow's publication of statistics on the consumer price index and Japan. Strong influence on the dynamics of stock market indices in the region will have the US indices and commodity prices. Our medium-term outlook is optimistic, despite the persistence of the risk of falling on the region's markets in the coming weeks.