26.06.2015 - Markets are waiting for a decision on Greece
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to consolidate near the level of 1.12 against the background of the lack of results of the negotiations in Greece and creditors. Consultations will continue today and throughout the weekend. German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged to reach an agreement before the market opens on Monday. Negative for the euro also had a positive statistics on personal income of consumers, which rose by 0.5% and personal spending, which increased by 0.9% in May that was the highest growth since August 2009. Analysts predicted increase in spending of 0.7%. Today, the course of trading will affect the news on the negotiations regarding the Greek crisis and statistics on consumer confidence in the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to consolidate around the previous close. Statistics for the balance of retail sales in June upset investors. Thus, the figure fell to 29 vs. expected 32 and the previous value of 51. Today, investors will be watching the news on the Greek crisis. Volatility may rise after a speech by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney (14:15 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we do not expect strong price movement today.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to strengthen amid growing demand for defensive assets, due to the Greek crisis and the risk of default of the country next week. Also today, was published statistics according to which household spending rose by 4.8% in May against the same period last year. Analysts expected an increase of 3.5%. The unemployment rate remained at 3.3%. Core consumer price index in May was 0.1%, which is 0.1% better than analysts' expectations. Expectation of monetary tightening in the US and ultra-soft policy of the Bank of Japan give reason to predict price decline of the yen in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar drops against the backdrop of the fall in commodity prices as iron ore, copper and gold, which are key export positions. The decline of the Chinese stock market, on the background of the lack of new stimulus from the government and fears of overheating of the local market also put pressure on the investment attractiveness of the Australian dollar, which is heavily dependent on China. We expect a fall in the price of the Australian currency in the medium term, also due to the expectation of easing monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar resumed its decline despite the publication of strong statistics on the country's trade balance surplus which rose to 350 million in May, against an expected deficit of 90 million. The pressure on the price of New Zealand currency continues to fall in the price of raw materials and a decrease on the Chinese stock markets. We recall that China is a major trading partner for New Zealand. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.