26.06.2015 - Shanghai market again has fallen heavily
Major US stock indexes fell on the background of the deterioration of investors' expectations regarding the outcome of the negotiations between Greece and creditors. We recall that in the next week, the country may default. Statistics, which was published yesterday, was controversial. Thus, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States totaled 271 thousand, which is 3 thousand more than in the previous period. Personal spending of the US consumers rose in May by 0.9% against the forecast of 0.7%, while personal income by 0.5%, which is 0.1% worse than analysts' expectations. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the index of consumer confidence in the US in June (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but the decline may continue in the near future.
Major European stock markets traded around the previous close and show a slight decline on concerns about Greece's negotiations with its creditors and the risk of default of the country next week. Yesterday was published statistics on consumer confidence in Germany, which totaled 10.1, in line with analysts' forecasts. At the same time the balance of UK retail sales in June was 29, which is 3 worse prognosis. Further dynamics of trading on the stock markets of Europe will depend on the outcome of negotiations on the Greek crisis, which continues over the weekend. In the medium term, we expect the growth on the stock markets in the region due to the positive influence of the quantitative easing program.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed strong growth of volatility. Thus, the major stock indexes fell after the collapse of quotations in Shanghai. Thus, the index lost more than 7% due to speculation regarding the absence of new measures to stimulate the Chinese economy from the government, and the desire to buy Chinese stocks on the stock exchange in Hong Kong at cheaper prices, which became possible after the liberalization of investment in China. The strengthening of the yen caused the decline on the Japanese market, and a fall in prices of iron ore and other commodities negatively affected the Australian market. We keep medium-term positive outlook for the market in the region, but note the risks associated with the slowdown of the Chinese economy.