26.08.2016 - We expect strong movements on the foreign exchange market
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed a slight increase against the US dollar, but investors do not rush to accumulate positions ahead of today's speech of Fed's chairwoman Janet Yellen on important economic symposium in Jackson Hole (14:00 GMT). Rhetoric of Mrs. Yellen will have a strong influence on the mood of traders, and in case of growth of the likelihood of higher interest rates in the US this year, we will see a sharp decline in the euro. On the dynamics of trading will also affect the data on the growth of US GDP in the second quarter (12:30 GMT) and the index of consumer confidence in Germany (06:00 GMT) and the US (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect strong price movement today.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound corrected down after failed to extend gains. Yesterday, in the country was issued a strong statement on the balance of retail sales, which in August totaled 9, vs. expected -5. Today, the focus will be on a preliminary report on GDP growth in the UK in the second quarter (08:30 GMT), as well as important news from the US that will lead to increased volatility. More likely will be a continuation of the negative dynamics of the British pound against the background of expectations of deteriorating economic situation in the country in connection with its exit from the EU. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to consolidate in anticipation of today's speech of Fed chief today, as well as the head of the Bank of Japan on Saturday. The base consumer price index in Japan was -0.5% in July, which will push the country's central bank to additional incentives. The divergence in monetary policy the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will put pressure on the yen, but on the other hand, there is a risk of falling stock markets around the world, which will increase the demand for protective assets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, and today, we expect a strong price movement.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continues to consolidate below 0.7650 and keeps moving inside the descending channel. Investors are waiting for today's speech by Janet Yellen, after which we will probably see a strong price movement. On Monday, investors will continue to assess the impact of timing of raising US interest rates on the global economy. In addition, will be published data on the Australian housing market. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a strong movement today.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues the consolidation. It should be noted that the oscillation amplitude is reduced, which is a strong indication of future price movements. Given the negative trade balance of the country, the recent decline in interest rates and the expectation of further easing of monetary policy in New Zealand, we expect the price to drop in the near future and medium term.