26.11.2014 - US GDP according to preliminary data increased by 3.9%
Major US stock indexes finished yesterday's trading session near the previous close levels. Positive for the market was the news on the US GDP growth by 3.9% in Q3, compared with an expected 3.3%. Despite this, the growth was rather limited due to the unexpectedly weak data on consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, which fell to 88.7, against the forecast of 95.9. Today, investors will be watching the data on the volume of durable goods orders, labor market data, personal income and spending of consumers (13:30 GMT), new homes sales (15:00 GMT) and the consumer confidence index (14:55 GMT). Therefore, we expect the growth of volatility. The lack of positive momentum after the publication of strong data on GDP growth that indicates weakness of the bulls. Against this background we maintain a medium-term negative outlook despite the possibility of continued growth in the near future.
European stock markets yesterday showed growth after the publication of statistics on GDP growth in Germany at 0.1% in Q3, in line with the analysts' forecasts. Compared to the same period of last year GDP grew by 1.2%. The growth in the UK was restrained by the data on the number of permits issued for mortgage lending to 37.1 thousand, which is 1.4 thousand worse than the forecast. GDP growth in the UK was 0.7% in the 3rd quarter, as expected. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the balance of retail sales in the UK (11:00 GMT) and a large block of statistics from the US. We assume the possibility of continuing growth in the near future, but its potential is low.
Most markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed a positive trend today. Chinese markets continue to rise after the China's central bank announced interest rate cuts to support the high growth of China's economy, which slowed to 7.3%, which is the lowest rate in five years. Japanese investors are waiting for publication of a large block of statistics on Friday. The Australian market continues to be under the pressure of low prices for iron ore. Potential for further growth according to our estimates remains low and we reserve the medium-term negative outlook on the markets in the region.