26.11.2015 - Activity on the market is reduced in connection with the celebration of Thanksgiving Day
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued its decline yesterday against the publication of strong data from the US, which has led to the strengthening of the US dollar. Thus, the volume of orders for durable goods rose in October by 3.0%, vs. predicted 1.6%. At the same time, new home sales in the US rose to 495 thousand against 447 thousand in September, but the figure was less than the forecasted 500 thousand. Consumer spending grew by only 0.1%, which was 0.2% less than expected. Today, in the US is a holiday and activity of investors will be reduced. The course of trading may be significantly affected by the data on the index of consumer confidence in Germany (12:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound yesterday showed growth despite the strengthening US dollar, which was caused by the improvement of forecasts on the growth of the economy. Thus, the UK's GDP growth in 2016 may reach 2.4%, and the government expects a budget surplus next year. At the same time, over the next five years it is planned to create an additional 1 million jobs. The main factors that negatively impact the British economy remain a weakness on the foreign markets. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the statement of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney (10:30 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the pound, but the correction may continue in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen fell yesterday after the release of strong US data, but the fall of the yen was limited by investors' desire not to risk due to the holiday in the US. Today, volatility is reduced in connection with the anticipation of important statistics on consumer price inflation, unemployment and household spending in Japan. We expect a further fall on the Japanese yen in the coming weeks and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar fell after the publication of a reduction of investments in Australia by 9.2% in the third quarter compared with the previous period. Analysts had forecasted a reduction by 3.0%. The volatility of prices in the near future will drop due to the lack of publication of important statistics in Australia and the United States today and tomorrow. Our medium-term outlook is negative and we are waiting for the signal to open short positions.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to rise despite the strengthening of the US dollar. Quotations of the national currency of the country continue to move in the downward trend in the coming weeks, we expect a continuation of the negative dynamics due to the expected easing of monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and its tightening in the United States. It is worth noting that the trade deficit in New Zealand in October totaled 963 million, against 1.14 billion in September. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.