26.02.2014 - The lull is on the market, traders anticipate new signals
The key American stock indexes were unable to gain a foothold above historical highs. Investors were disappointed by statistics on house prices index, which showed a slowdown in December to 13.3% with the previous figure of 13.7%. It should be noted that the growth of house prices on results of year was the fastest in the last 8 years. The consumer confidence index fell to 78.1 in February, with an expected growth to 80.2. Data on GDP growth in Germany by 0,4% has met the analysts' expectations.
On this background
euro continues to consolidate
near the level of 1.3750. The absence of a strong movement of the pair can be
explained by expectation of release of statistics on unemployment and consumer
price inflation in the euro area, which will be published only on Friday. Today
the course of trading will be affected by data on consumer confidence in Germany
(07:00 GMT) and new home sales in the U.S. In the short term a gradual growth
is more likely. In the medium term the price can reach the level of 1.3800.
From the point of view of fundamental analysis, in the long run a decline of
EUR/USD is more prob
The British pound once again shows its strength. For example, the quotes of GBP/USD continue to rise gradually amid positive data on the growth of the number of mortgage approvals to 50.0 thousand, against the forecast of 47.9 thousand. In addition, investors were pleased by the balance of retail sales, which rose to 37 versus expectations 15. Today, the central news of the day will be the release of the preliminary report on the growth of British GDP in the 4th quarter. In case of the growth of the figure, we expect the price increase of the British pound. In the medium and long term the growth of quotations of the British currency is likely to continue, but may be limited by interventions by the Bank of England.
The price of USD/JPY continues to reduce the amplitude of the oscillations, which should result in a strong movement in the coming days. Stimulus for increased volatility will be the publication of a large block of macrostats which will be held on Thursday night. The direction of movement in the short and medium term will depend on the data, but we expect that in the long term the quotes of USD/JPY will continue to rise due to the loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, which will not be tightened soon.
Lack of important macro in Australia has led to the fact that the price of AUD/USD continues to move in the side channel. The growth of the Australian dollar is limited because of concerns about the future growth of the Chinese economy, which is the main trading partner of Australia. In addition, investors are closely watching the prices for iron ore - the main export commodity of the country. It is difficult to determine the prospects for AUD/USD in the coming days, but in the long term, we expect a decline in prices.
New Zealand Dollar has stopped the growth and continues to consolidate near the level of 0.8330. Further movement of the pair will depend on the data on the trade balance of the country (21:45 GMT). In addition, traders are closely watching economic indicators of the main trading partner - China. Further growth of quotations in the short and long term is limited, but in the long term, we expect devaluation of NZD/USD.
The price of oil futures for Light sweet continues to decline gradually amid expectations of further growth in U.S. oil inventories, as well as doubts about the growth in consumption of oil due to a slowdown in China, which is the second largest oil consumer in the world. Cold weather in the U.S. and disruption of oil supplies from Libya and South Sudan are supporting the quotes of oil. We keep medium and long term negative outlook for quotations of oil. Today we should pay attention to data on oil and petroleum products' inventories in the U.S. (15:30 GMT).
The price of gold continues to move gradually to the mark 1360 dollars per troy ounce and is now consolidating around 1340 level. Among the factors that fuel interest in gold remain the doubts regarding the future growth on the U.S. stock markets and speculation about the lifting of the ban on the import of gold in India, the second largest consumer of metal after China. We maintain our positive outlook for gold and expect the price to reach 1360 dollars per troy ounce in the near future.