26.05.2014 - In the U.S. and the UK today is a business holiday
of euro continued to fall on Friday amid expectations of the results of
elections to the European Parliament and the presidential elections in Ukraine,
where was expected worsening of the situation in the eastern regions of the
country. On Friday was published data on GDP growth in Germany to 0.8% in Q1,
which coincided with the expectations of analysts and the business climate
index in Germany, which in May fell to 110.4, against the forecast of 111.0.
Today we expect the low activity of traders in connection with a holiday in the
United States. The course of trading may be influenced by data on consumer
confidence in Germany in June (06:00 GMT), and also the speech of Mario Draghi
(08:00 GMT). We expect monetary policy easing of the ECB on June 5 and maintain
The price of the British pound fell on Friday amid fixing positions before the long weekend, as well as due to weak statistics on the business climate in Germany. Today, we expect low volatility on the market due to the holiday in the U.S. and UK. The main event of the week for the British pound will be the publication of the letter of the Bank of England on inflation on Wednesday. We maintain a long-term positive outlook, but expect the negative impact of the weakening euro on the British currency.
The Japanese yen continued to lose ground after the speech of the head of the Bank Japan Haruhiko Kuroda, who said that the yen is unreasonably overvalued. Tonight have also been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan in which were no surprises for the market. Increase in volatility is expected on Friday after the release of a large block of macroeconomic statistics on Japanese economy. Today, we expect price consolidation of USD/JPY around 102.00 level and maintain medium and long-term positive outlook for the pair.
The price of the Australian dollar continues to consolidate above the strong level 0.9220. Fall of pair has stopped on positive data on industry in China. The quotes of pair are negatively influenced by decline of iron ore prices and the expectation of additional measures to deal with low inflation in the country, which could harm the economic recovery of the country. We expect continued downward movement in the medium term.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to decline. The reason for the sales became trade balance of New Zealand, which surplus in April fell to 534 million against the forecast of 636 million. In addition, traders are afraid of new moves from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which had previously announced its intention to deal with the high New Zealand dollar exchange rate that harms the economy against falling export prices. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook and expect further reduction of the New Zealand dollar.