27.01.2016 - Traders are waiting for the decision of the RBNZ
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro indicates consolidation before the decision of the Fed on monetary policy, which will be published today at 19:00 GMT. It should be noted that the probability of changes in the parameters of monetary policy today is minimal, but the Fed may hint at future plans for raising interest rates. It is noteworthy that poor statistics in the United States reduces the possibility of raising interest rates in March, which has a positive impact on the price of the euro. Today, the dynamics of trading will also affect data on the index of consumer confidence in Germany from the Ifo (07:00 GMT) and new home sales in the US (15:00 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound showed growth yesterday after the statement of the Bank of England, in which he said about the lack of conditions for the increase of interest rates in the UK. In addition, it was noted that about 70% of investors believe that the decline in global equity markets, low gasoline prices and slowing growth in emerging markets will not affect the British economy. Tomorrow will be published preliminary data on GDP growth in the UK in Q4 and accelerated growth can lead to a continuation of the upward trend of the British currency. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but the current correction may continue in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened slightly against the US dollar. Investors are waiting for the Fed's decision on interest rates today (19:00 GMT). At the same time, strong price movement is expected on Friday, following a statement by the Bank of Japan on monetary policy whose settings can be changed in the direction of easing to counter the effects of a stronger yen and a decline in the equity markets of Japan. Tomorrow the course of trading may also affect data on retail sales in the country. Our medium-term negative outlook for the yen remains unchanged.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed growth against the background of the weakening US dollar and rising commodity prices, which traditionally has a strong impact on the dynamics of the national currency of the country. It is worth noting that today was published statistics on inflation in the country in the 4th quarter. Thus, the figure was 0.4%, which is 0.1% better than the forecast, but 0.1% less than the previous period. Slowing inflation stimulates the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates, but we do not expect this event soon. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, despite the possible continuation of growth in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. Price of the New Zealand dollar shows a positive trend against the background of the Australian dollar. Investors did not rush to accumulate positions before the announcement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy (20:00 GMT). According to our forecasts, the New Zealand central bank will leave interest rates at the same level, but it may hint at their decline after the next meeting. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook, and expect increased volatility today and tomorrow.