27.03.2015 - The conflict in the Arabian Peninsula could lead to higher oil prices
The price of gold yesterday showed strong growth on the background of news about airstrikes on anti-government forces in Yemen from Saudi Arabia and its allies. The probability of the outbreak of war between Sunnis and Shiites in the Middle East led to increased demand for defensive assets. Despite this, the increase was partially offset by the strengthening of the US dollar after the publication of statistics on reduction the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States to 282 million, compared with an expected 291 thousand. Further price movement will depend on the current statistics on US GDP growth in the 4th quarter of last year (12:30 GMT) and speech by Fed (19:45 GMT). Investors will also continue to follow the negotiations with creditors Greece. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for gold.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil corrected after strong growth caused by airstrikes Saudi Arabia and allies in Yemen. The risks of military conflict in the region, which is a key for the oil market in the world can raise the price of oil. At the same time, US crude stocks continue to rise, and investors fear that oil storage capacity will be completely filled, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices. Today, the dynamics of prices will depend on the data for GDP growth in the US (12:30 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook with the target at $ 40 per barrel, but do not exclude a sharp rise in prices in case of deterioration of the situation in the Middle East.