27.04.2015 - Demand for gold has fallen
The price of gold fell at the end of the week against the background of uncertainty about the Fed raising interest rates. The weakening of the US dollar caused by weak data on orders for durable goods which increased by 4.0%, but excluding the transportation component fell by 0.2%, failed to change investor sentiment. The demand for gold in China and India, which are the two largest consumers of the metal remains low. In case of hints on the Fed to raise interest rates in June, we forecast a fall in the price of gold to the level of $ 1,150 per troy ounce. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for gold, but forecast drop in the near future.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil continues to move around levels of 56-58 dollars per barrel. At the moment, oil prices are supported by the weakening of the US dollar, as well as the continuation of the military conflict in Yemen, which threatens the security of supply of oil through the strait through which is transported about 4% of the world's oil supply. At the same time, the number of drilling rigs in the United States continues to decline and is now reduced to 703, which is the lowest level since October 2010. At the same time, OPEC countries continue to increase oil production and the imbalance of supply and demand for their oil is about 2 million barrels in a day. We forecast drop in oil prices in the medium term and expect the signal to open short positions.