27.04.2015 - Volatility declined in the first trading day of the week
The price of euro stabilized near the level of 1.09 and at the moment the price volatility is low due to lack of important macroeconomic data. Investor sentiment has improved against the euro after the announcement of the German Chancellor on constructive meeting with Prime Minister of Greece, but at the same time, Greece still needs to provide a package of reforms for debt restructuring. Today slightly on the course of trading may affect the data on import prices in Germany (06:00 GMT) and service PMI (13:45 GMT). Investors expect the Fed's statement on monetary policy and preliminary data on GDP growth in the US on Wednesday. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
The price of the British pound continued to rise on the weakening of the US dollar against the background of weak data on durable goods orders, excluding the transport component fell by 0.2%. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the balance of production orders in the UK (10:00 GMT), but the activity of investors will be restrained by the expectation of tomorrow's publication of preliminary data on GDP growth in the UK (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the British pound remains negative and we expect a resumption of the downtrend this week.
The price of the Japanese yen was unable to continue its upward movement and price volatility at the beginning of the trading week is minimal due to the absence of important news and publication of macroeconomic data. The weakening of the US dollar price supported the yen at the end of last week, but for the continuation of the downward movement are needed additional incentives. Further price movement will depend on the decision of the Fed on monetary policy and preliminary data on US GDP growth in Q1. We see no reason for the continued growth of the price of the yen and maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese currency.
The price of the Australian dollar has stabilized after strong growth last week. Quotes growth will be constrained by the expectation of the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens, in which he can point to the regulator plans with respect to lowering interest rates. According to our forecasts, easing monetary policy will occur during the next RBA meeting that in turn will weaken the Australian dollar. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative and we expect the change of local uptrend on the negative in the near future.
The price of the New Zealand dollar shows moderate growth amid expectations of the publication of important statistics on the trade balance of the country on Tuesday night. The growth of trade surplus countries will lead to an improvement in investor sentiment and cause a rise in the price of New Zealand currency. It is worth noting that on Wednesday night will be published statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy. We expect a high price volatility this week.