27.04.2016 - Oil may start a correction in the coming weeks
The price of gold rose amid dollar’s decrease in connection with the publication of statistics on the volume of orders for durable goods in the US, which grew by 0.8% in March against an expected increase of 1.9%. In February, the fall of this index was 3.0%. The main event this week will be the publication of the Fed's statement on monetary policy (18:00 GMT). Hints of a rise in interest rates during the next meeting in June will lead to an increase in the US dollar and reduction of attractiveness of investing in gold compared to the US treasuries. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook, but do not rule out growth in the near future in case of a fall on the stock markets.
The price of futures on Light Sweet crude oil rose amid expectations that the growth in demand for oil will lead to a balance of supply and consumption of oil on the market before the end of this year. On the other hand, Iran increased its supply of oil on the market by 1 million barrels since the lifting of sanctions on oil exports. Competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran for market share is likely to continue due to the increased supply of the two countries. In addition, Russia will probably continue to increase supplies to the market. We expect a strong correction in the oil market in the near future.