27.04.2016 - Traders are waiting for the Fed statement
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed growth against the background of weakening the US dollar, which has been associated with the publication of weak statistics on the volume of orders for durable goods in the US, which in March rose by 0.8% that was 1.1% less than the forecast. In February, the index decreased by 3.0%. Today will be published the Fed's statement on monetary policy (18:00 GMT), but we do not expect any changes in monetary policy parameters. Investors will be looking for hints on the timing of interest rate increases and in the case of a more hawkish rhetoric in the statement, the euro may resume falling. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains pessimistic.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to rise against the background of increasing optimism about the results of the referendum on the UK's membership in the European Union. Positively on expectations influenced the support for the idea of saving the UK within the EU, on the part of US President Barack Obama. Today will be published preliminary data on GDP growth in the UK for the 1st quarter. Our forecast for the coming months remains negative due to the likely increase in speculations regarding the results of the referendum on 23 June.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to consolidate before today's Federal Reserve statement on monetary policy (18:00 GMT), and tomorrow's statement of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy in which can be stated intention to reduce credit interest rates of the central bank of Japan to negative. In addition, tomorrow we should pay attention to the statistics on inflation, industrial production and retail sales. Our medium-term outlook for the Japanese yen is negative due to the divergence of interest rates in Japan and the United States.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a sharp decline after today was published unexpectedly weak data on the consumer price index in Australia for the 1 quarter, which fell to -0.2% against the expected 0.3%. This factor is a strong incentive for the reduction of the RBA’s interest rate that will have a negative impact on the Australian currency. In addition, the decline may accelerate in case of correction in the commodity markets, the probability of which has increased significantly in recent years. Our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar remains unchanged.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar is consolidated in anticipation of the publication of the RBNZ’s statement on monetary policy (21:00 GMT). In addition, a few hours before will be published the Fed’s statement on monetary policy in the US (18:00 GMT). It should be noted that the surplus of trade balance in New Zealand in March was 117 million against the forecast of 405 million and 367 million in February. In general, the macroeconomic indicators are improving in New Zealand, but the risks associated with weak global growth may be negatively displayed on the price of the local currency. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.