The price of gold continues to fall against the strengthening of the US dollar and rising probability of the Fed raising interest rates this summer, due to yesterday's publication of strong statistics on the volume of orders for durable goods, which rose by 3.4% in April against an expected increase of 0.3%. It is worth noting that today is expected the increased volatility due to the speech of the Fed's chairwoman Janet Yellen (17:15 GMT), as well as the publication of data on US GDP growth in the 1st quarter (12:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative on expectations of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, but if the stock markets will fall the demand for gold as a defensive asset will rise.
The price of futures for Light Sweet crude oil corrected down after reached the psychologically important level of 50 dollars per barrel. The recent rise in oil is due to disruptions in oil supply from Canada, Nigeria and Libya, which were temporary. Also, the current price level can trigger a rise in US production. Support for oil prices in the near future may be an increase in demand for gasoline due to the start of the season trips to America. According to our estimates, there is a high probability of the correction rates in the coming weeks with the potential to fall by 15-20%.