27.09.2016 - The dollar strengthened after the debates in the US
Currency trading and the euro. Price of euro showed decline against the US dollar as a result of a TV debate of the US presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Investors appreciated Mrs. Clinton as the winner of the debate that led to the growth of the dollar. We Recall that the victory of Mr. Trump is a serious risk to the stability of global financial markets. It is worth noting that the dollar was also supported by news on the number of new home sales in August, which was 609 thousand vs. expected 598 thousand and 659 thousand in the previous month. Today, it is worth paying attention to the home price index S&P/Case-Shiller in 20 major US cities (13:00 GMT), the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (14:00 GMT) and the speech of the deputy head of the Federal Reserve of Stanley Fischer ( 15:15 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative, but consolidation around current levels may continue in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound fell against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar after the debate of the presidential candidates. Against the background of the lack of publication of important macroeconomic data capable to strongly affect the dynamics of the British pound, the main attention will be focused on the movement of the US dollar. Today, little impact on the course of trading will have data on the balance of UK retail sales (10:00 GMT). On Friday it will be published important data on GDP growth in the UK in the second quarter. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of Japanese yen showed a decline against the US dollar, amid growing chances Hillary Clinton becoming the US president. Minutes of previous meeting of the Bank of Japan could not significantly affect the mood of investors on the market. The strengthening of the Japanese currency will be limited to the expectation of currency interventions to deal with the strengthening of the national currency, which is negative for the economy. Demand for the yen as a defensive asset may increase in case of a fall on the stock markets. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook, and expect a further fall in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed growth against the background of recovery in prices on commodity markets. In the absence of publication of important statistics from Australia in the next few days, the main factors that will influence the course of trading will remain the movement of the US dollar and commodity prices. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and the potential for further growth is low.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of New Zealand currency showed a correction after yesterday's decline, caused by the release of a report on the trade balance of New Zealand, whose deficit grew due to lower prices for dairy flour in China and the United Arab Emirates. Strengthening of trade imbalances, as well as a likely reduction in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, according to our estimates, will lead to a reduction of the national currency quotes by 10-15% until the end of the year, despite the strong growth of the economy. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.