27.11.2014 - In the United States celebrate Thanksgiving Day
The price of euro shows the growth amid weakening US dollar. The reason for the fall of the US dollar has become weak macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the number of initial unemployment claims rose to 313 thousand, versus the expected 287 thousand, personal income and spending rose by 0.2% in October, which was 2 times worse than expected consumer confidence index in November fell to 88.8, that was 1.4 worse than expected, and new home sales totaled 458 thousand, which is 13 thousand less than predicted by experts. The dollar was supported by data on durable goods orders, which increased by 0.4%, against an expected decline of 0.4%. The reason for the growth of this indicator was the increase in military orders. Today in the US is a day off and volatility will be lower. The course of trading will be affected by the data on the labor market in Germany (8:55 GMT) and the money supply in the euro area (09:00 GMT). We expect the resumption of the downward movement of the euro in the near future.
The price of the British pound strengthened against the background of a weakening dollar, as well as in connection with the publication of statistics on the growth of GDP of the UK. Thus, the rate in the third quarter increased by 0.7% or 3.0% per year, which coincided with forecasts of analysts, but it was less than in the second quarter, when GDP grew by 0.9% and 3.2% per annum. It should be noted that business investment fell by 0.7%, but consumer spending rose by 0.8%. Today the activity of traders will be low in connection with the celebration of Thanksgiving Day in the United States. We expect growth of quotations in the near future.
The Japanese yen strengthened slightly against the US dollar on the background of weakening after weak data yesterday. It is worth noting that a number of investors can fix position after the sharp fall in the case of further strengthening of the yen. Activity remains low on the one hand due to the holiday in the US, on the other hand in connection with the expectation of tomorrow's publication of statistics on household expenditures, unemployment, consumer price index, retail sales and industrial production in Japan. In the medium term the price of the yen will continue to decline due to the ultra-loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.
The price of the Australian dollar has shown steady growth amid falling US currency quotations, as well as in connection with the positive statistics on new home sales in Australia, which in October rose by 3.0%. At the same time, private capital expenditure rose by 0.2%, compared with an expected decline of 1.5%. Investors continue to closely monitor the dynamics of iron ore prices, which puts pressure on the falling Australian currency, as well as the news from China, where economic growth slowed to its lowest level in 5 years. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
The New Zealand dollar has shown a steady growth due to the weakening US dollar. It is worth noting that the country's trade deficit in October totaled 908 million, against 1.367 billion in the previous period. Analysts predicted that the figure will drop to 635 million. On the one hand there is no reason for the growth of the New Zealand currency, which continues to be under the pressure of low prices for dairy products and raw materials, as well as weak data from China. On the other hand a possible correction of the US Dollar, may lead to fixation of short positions and to trigger the growth of the New Zealand currency. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.