27.11.2014 - Today in OPEC will decide on quotas

The price of gold decreases after prolonged consolidation despite the weak data on the US labor market, where the number of initial unemployment claims rose to 313 thousand, compared with an expected decrease to 287 thousand. The negative impact of labor market data was partially offset by the positive statistics on the increase of durable goods orders by 0.4%, which was associated with an increase in military orders. Analysts forecasted a drop of 0.4%. Slower growth in India's GDP, which is the world's second largest consumer of gold after China to 5.0% in the third quarter, compared to 5.7% in the second quarter of this year, had a negative impact on the dynamics of prices of gold. Investors are awaiting the results of the referendum in Switzerland on the need for maintaining part of gold in the reserves in the country at 20%. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for gold.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil after failed attempt to update the minimum and continued to fall against the publication of data on the growth of US oil inventories for the 7-th time in the last 8 weeks. Thus, oil reserves rose by 1.9 million barrels, or 1.5 million barrels more than expected. Saudi oil minister said that the oil market will stabilize by itself, which reduced the expectation of reduction of the oil production quotas in OPEC. We remind that today is the meeting of OPEC in Vienna, at which will be decided on oil production quotas. If the quotas will remain the same, we expect a sharp drop in oil prices and recommend holding short positions. Today is expected the increase of volatility and we keep the medium-term negative outlook with the potential of fall to $ 60 per barrel in case of saving OPEC quotas.

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