27.08.2014 - Markets are waiting for US GDP data

Major American stock indexes closed yesterday's session with a slight increase. The reason for optimism was the statistics on the growth of consumer confidence in the United States to 92.4, which is 33 better than the forecast of analysts. Also yesterday was published the data on record since 1992, increase in orders for durable goods by 22.6%, which has become possible due to a sharp increase in orders in the aircraft industry. At the same time the same period except for the transportation component decreased by 0.8, compared with an expected growth of 0.5%. Today we expect low volatility, but tomorrow will be published revised data for GDP growth in the United States in the second quarter. We expect the beginning of the correction in the near future and maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the American stock market.

European stocks rose again yesterday on expectations of new stimulus from the ECB. We recall that on Friday the head of the ECB declared the need for measures to fight low inflation. European investors also were supported by positive data from the United States. Traders were also watching the outcome of the meeting of the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine, which as a result did not lead to the reduction of tension in the region and ended only with formal statements about the need to take measures for regional stabilization. Statistics on consumer confidence of investors in Germany disappointed analysts. Thus, the index decreased by 0.3 to 8.6. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for European markets.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region ended the day near the previous close. This situation points to the lack of strength of bulls and the expectation of new incentives, which may be the data on the GDP in the United States on Thursday, unemployment in the euro zone on Friday and a large block of macro-statistics on the Japanese economy, which will be released tomorrow night. Problems in the housing market and growth slowdown in the industry in China continue to constrain the growth of stock markets in the region. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the markets in the Asia-Pacific region, but assume the continued growth of the Japanese indexes against the devaluation of the yen.

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