27.08.2014 - The index of consumer confidence in the United States has strengthened the dollar
The price of euro continues to fall against the dollar due to expectations of new measures by the ECB to deal with low inflation. Also yesterday, was published positive statistics in the United States, which has strengthened the dollar. Thus, orders for durable goods rose by 22.6% in July, compared with an expected 7.8%. It is worth noting that the same indicator except for the transportation component, fell 0.8% against the expected growth of 0.5%. At the same time, the consumer confidence index rose in August to the highest level since October 2007 - 92.4, which is 3.3 better than the forecast. Today the course of trading can be affected by statistics on consumer confidence of investors in Germany (06:00 GMT) and the index of requests for mortgage lending in the United States (11:00 GMT). We expect continued downward movement in the medium term with a target at about 1.28.
The price of the British pound fell again yesterday against the strengthening of the American currency and weak data on the labor market, where the number of permits for mortgage lending fell to 42.8 million, with an expected growth to 44.2 thousand. Today, the dynamics of trading will not be volatile. The potential for further reduction of the British currency has dropped significantly and we expect the beginning of the correction in the near future. Purchases are likely to resume after the referendum on Scottish independence. Our medium-term outlook remains positive.
The Japanese yen slightly weakened against the dollar, after yesterday's release of statistics on durable goods and consumer confidence in the United States. Investors are also closely watching on the results of the meeting of the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, which did not bring significant results, but did not increase the level of tension. The conflict in Ukraine continues to influence the yen quotes, as a defensive asset. Increased volatility in prices is expected tomorrow night, after the release of a large block of statistics on the unemployment rate, the consumer price index and industrial production in Japan. We expect further fall of the yen in the medium term.
The price of the Australian dollar again tried to continue to grow and has overcome the strong level of 0.9330, but failed to do so. The price of the Australian dollar is supporting the growth of gold and other commodities. Today we should pay attention to data on new home sales in Australia. We recall that the construction sector has become one of the main growth drivers for the economy due to the slowdown in the mining sector. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian currency.
The price of the New Zealand dollar started to correct upwards after a sharp decline on negative data on the trade deficit of the country which has grown to 692 million, vs. expected 475 million. The price of currency continues to be under the pressure of lower export prices. At the same time quotes are supported by plans on further increase of the interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. We forecast further price correction in the near future.