28.01.2016 - Indexes are consolidated in anticipation of US GDP data
US stocks yesterday fell amid conflicting news. Thus, the main event of the day was the Fed's statement, which was more soft regarding the issue of further increases in interest rates and increased investors' concerns about the risks to US economic growth. The main problems were identified as the decline in exports and investment in stocks. On the other hand, the indices were supported by the strong statistics on new home sales, which have grown to 544 million, against the forecast of 501 thousand. Rising of oil prices supported the optimism today, but it can be short-lived. The dynamics of trading today will affect the data on the labor market and the volume of orders for durable goods (13:30 GMT). Activity on the market will be constrained by the expectation of tomorrow's publication of preliminary data on US GDP growth in the 4th quarter. Our forecast for the coming months remains negative.
Major European stock indexes do not show some movement today. Investors decided to take a break after yesterday's Fed statement. The main event of this week will be the publication of the preliminary data on US GDP growth in the 4th quarter. Today was published statistics on the growth of the UK economy, which totaled 0.5% in Q4, which is 0.1% better than in the previous period. Tomorrow is expected the increase in activity on the market in connection with the publication of important data on GDP growth in France and Spain, as well as retail sales in Germany. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, despite the negative impact of news from Asia and the US. We expect a continuation of the current growth in the near future.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region today showed different dynamics. Uncertainty about the situation in China's stock market, leads to a reduction of local indexes. The Japanese market negatively affected the news about the decline in retail sales in December by 1.1%, compared with an expected growth of 0.1%. Tomorrow will be published a statement of the Bank of Japan and many experts predict the approval of additional measures to stimulate inflation in Japan, which will lead to growth in the market. The situation in the region remains volatile, but the Japanese market may show a strong correction in the near future.