28.03.2016 - The fall on commodity markets may continue after the long weekend
The price of gold continued to decline against the publication of positive statistics on the growth of US GDP for the 4th quarter, which, according to the final report was 1.4% against the previous estimate of 1.0%. It is worth noting that last year, GDP growth was 2.4%. This fact reduced the concerns about risks to the global economy, reducing demand for defensive assets like gold. According to our estimates, the strengthening of the dollar and rising probability of interest rate increases in the near future, will put pressure on the gold price. In this regard, we keep a medium-term negative outlook.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil corrected upward before the long weekend on a background of fixing positions. In addition, on Friday, was published statistics from the company Baker Hughes, according to which, the number of active oil rigs in the US fell by 15 to 372 units. It is worth noting that in the coming weeks, the volatility will remain high due to speculation regarding the meeting of major oil producers in Qatar on 17 April. According to our forecasts, the results of the meeting will not really affect the situation in the market and the fall of oil will resume. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.